Why AP called Wisconsin and the White House for Donald Trump

WASHINGTON (AP) — The Associated Press declared that Republican Donald Trump won Wisconsin — and with it, a return to the White House — once it determined that remaining uncounted votes mostly from the greater Milwaukee area would not be enough to allow Vice President Kamala Harris to overtake Trump.

With nearly all of the vote counted early Wednesday, the AP declared Trump the winner of Wisconsin’s 10 electoral votes at 5:34 a.m. ET, enough to push the former president past the 270-vote threshold needed to retake the presidency.

Winning Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania had been the vice president’s most straightforward path to victory, but the AP had already declared Trump the winner in Pennsylvania at 2:24 a.m. ET. The AP declared Trump the winner in Michigan at 12:54 p.m. ET on Wednesday, although the race was still undetermined at the time Wisconsin was called.

In the hours leading up to the AP’s race call in Wisconsin, a sizable amount of uncounted ballots remained in Milwaukee and Racine counties, among others. In order to win, Harris would have needed to win the vast majority of these uncounted ballots. That was still possible, considering that Milwaukee County is one of the state’s most reliable Democratic strongholds. As for Racine, although the county generally favors Republicans, it historically has reported votes near the end of its count that heavily favored Democrats.

Subsequent vote updates from Racine did heavily favor Harris — but not by enough to allow her to push past Trump, even when factoring in additional uncounted Milwaukee County votes that would have benefited the vice president.

The AP only declares a winner once it can determine that a trailing candidate can’t close the gap and overtake the vote leader.

Here’s a look at how the AP called this race:

CANDIDATES: Harris (D) vs. Trump (R) vs. Randall Terry (Constitution) vs. Chase Oliver (Libertarian) vs. Jill Stein (Green) vs. Claudia De la Cruz (Party for Socialism and Liberation) vs. Cornel West (Justice for All) vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (We the People).

POLL CLOSING TIME: 9 p.m. ET

ABOUT THE RACE:

Wisconsin was one of the three Midwestern “blue wall” states that supported Trump in 2016 and President Joe Biden in 2020 and remained a competitive presidential battleground in 2024. Both Trump and Harris and their running mates made frequent stops in Wisconsin, including several in the populous Milwaukee, Madison and Green Bay areas. The margin of victory in past presidential contests was less than a percentage point in the 2020, 2016, 2004 and 2000.

In 2016, Democrat Hillary Clinton lost statewide despite winning Milwaukee County with 66% of the vote, Dane County, the home of Madison, with 71% and LaCrosse with 52%. Four years later, Joe Biden improved upon Clinton’s performances in the three counties by between 3 and 5 percentage points, helping him eke out a narrow statewide victory. Trump carried Brown County, the home of Green Bay, in 2016 and 2020 with about 52% of the vote, and Biden outperformed Clinton’s showing there by about 4 percentage points.

For Republican candidates, winning the conservative “WOW” counties of Waukesha, Ozaukee and Washington in suburban Milwaukee can help offset heavy Democratic support in Milwaukee and Dane counties.

WHY AP CALLED THE RACE:

In addition to Racine, Trump was also comfortably ahead in the other southeastern counties that form the state’s most solid Republican stronghold. This region includes the so-called “WOW” counties but does not include Milwaukee County itself. Trump also had a large lead in northeastern Wisconsin, including in Brown County, home to Green Bay. He also established decisive leads in the Republican-voting counties surrounding Brown.

Harris was trailing Biden’s 2020 performance across the board in every geographic region. She was also trailing Biden across the state’s political spectrum, from areas that voted the most heavily for Trump in 2020 to those that voted most heavily for Biden.

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Learn more about how and why the AP declares winners in U.S. elections at Explaining Election 2024, a series from The Associated Press aimed at helping make sense of the American democracy. The AP receives support from several private foundations to enhance its explanatory coverage of elections and democracy. See more about AP’s democracy initiative here. The AP is solely responsible for all content.